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Will return of Bhutto stabilize Pakistan?
via The Star , Toronto :
Olivia Ward Deal, or no deal? For millions of Pakistanis – some hopeful, others heated – the question of the moment is whether President Pervez Musharraf and London-based former prime minister Benazir Bhutto will agree on terms to let her back into politics and him to stay on as president if he sheds his army uniform. With political confidence plummeting, violent clashes between the army and Islamic extremists and a general election in the offing, most people in Pakistan are eager for stability. News that the two old foes met for secret talks Friday in Abu Dhabi, and that Bhutto insisted Musharraf resign as army chief and return to civilian government as a condition of support for his re-election, raised the hopes of democrats. But there are warnings that Bhutto's return, after nearly a decade in self-imposed exile to avoid arrest, may not be the magic bullet Western leaders, as well as Pakistanis, long for. "This is a turning point for Pakistan," says Husain Haqqani, a former adviser to Bhutto, and now director of the Center for International Relations at Boston University. "The important thing is not whether it's a good deal for Bhutto and Musharraf, but whether it's good for the people." An agreement would give Bhutto the chance for a third term as prime minister, if the corruption allegations that forced her out of the country were dropped, along with a constitutional bar to serving another term. "Musharraf has to have the deal with Bhutto look like a necessary transitional agreement to save the country," Haqqani said. "She has to make it look as though it isn't just a deal to get her back into politics." Parliamentary Affairs Minister Sher Afgan Niazi said an accord would allow the two secular politicians to "join hands to defeat extremism" in the upcoming elections, a reference to the growing influence of Islamists. Following Friday's meeting between Musharraf and Bhutto, pro-Taliban militants seized control of a shrine in northwestern Pakistan and renamed it after Islamabad's Red Mosque, where the army recently attacked Islamic extremists who had made it their base, leaving dozens dead. Meanwhile, Pakistan's Supreme Court, headed by a popular chief justice Musharraf tried unsuccessfully to oust, is to hear a challenge to his military rule filed by Qazi Hussain Ahmad, leader of Pakistan's main alliance of hard-line Islamist parties. If the verdict was to go against Musharraf, it would make Bhutto's demand irrelevant. For decades Pakistan has been ruled by an elite group of intermarried land owners, old moneyed families, bureaucrats and military officials, he pointed out. Although born to a political dynasty, Bhutto appealed to ordinary people, as the poor felt excluded from the benefits of economic growth. But since her recent exile the country has changed, says Kamran Bokhari, director of Middle East analysis for Strategic Forecasting Inc. Her triumphal return to politics is no longer a sure bet. "Her party isn't what it used to be. It's been cut down to size, with lots of people defecting to Musharraf, or forming their own faction. Now the electorate is very divided, with at least five main forces and smaller regional ones to do business with." Within her own Pakistan People's Party, Bhutto has opposition from members who accuse her of consorting with the enemy, he added. "Everyone is afraid it'll come back to haunt the party. It's only a matter of time until Musharraf loses a significant chunk of power and fades away, or is forced out. Bhutto could be a casualty of the process." The perception that Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari are corrupt also works against her. She dismisses the charges as politically motivated. Elegant, Harvard- and Oxford-educated, Bhutto has been on a political roller coaster since her father, one of Pakistan's few civilian leaders, was deposed in a military coup, charged with murder and executed in 1979. At the time she was imprisoned for six years, but set up the Pakistan People's Party in London after a medical release from jail. She returned to wide acclaim in 1986 and two years later became Pakistan's first democratically elected female prime minister. Deposed for alleged corruption, she returned in 1993 for another three years in power, until she once more left to live abroad.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS REPORTER
